Many merchants and technicians carefully observe the well-known “Golden Cross” shifting common crossover in key liquid markets equivalent to Bitcoin, Gold, and the Nasdaq 100 Index amongst others. Today, nonetheless, we’ll look at an under-the-radar Bitcoin shifting common crossover which appears imminent. Using Bitcoin’s dependable knowledge from 2011 by at the moment, let’s discover out if this lesser identified shifting common crossover appears bullish or bearish going ahead.
This Lesser Known Moving Average Crossover May Soon Hit
While the Golden Cross happens when the 50-day easy shifting common crosses above the 200-day easy shifting common, Bitcoin’s 50-day easy shifting common (50MA) at present appears poised to cross above its 100-day easy shifting common (100MA) inside days. Earlier this 12 months, Bitcoin’s 50MA crossed above its 100MA because the primary crypto by market cap surged in January off of its post-FTX collapse low. Further Bitcoin features adopted from this most up-to-date crossover.
Bitcoin Daily Chart | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Now that Bitcoin has prolonged its year-to-date features in latest classes, its 50MA appears poised to cross again above its 100MA as soon as once more. Beyond the sign earlier this 12 months, what’s occurred up to now when Bitcoin’s 50MA has crossed above its 100MA?
Sixty Days And Beyond Looks Bullish
To discover out, we’ll take a look at all alerts since 2011, including an additional situation which higher describes present market circumstances with respect to Bitcoin. Our further situation requires that Bitcoin’s 100MA have to be rising, which means that the typical closed at a worth larger than the day earlier than when the 50MA crossed above the 100MA. This extra requirement filters out 50MA > 100MA crossovers in periods of downward value momentum and higher describes Bitcoin’s present technical state.
While the holding time graphic under illustrates Bitcoin’s historic tendency for additional upside following such alerts, hypothetical features seem unimpressively small with short-term holding occasions of seven to fifteen days, up solely +1.8% and 1.9% respectively. Moving out to a 30-day holding time, the Average Trade of +10.4% appears way more promising.
Bitcoin Holding Time Stats | SOURCE: Tableau
From an intermediate-term perspective, nonetheless, the Average Trade stats leap considerably larger with hypothetical features starting from +45.7% with a 60-day holding time to +170.9% with a 90-day maintain.
Returning to the early 2023 sign and assuming a 90-day maintain (1/25/23 to 4/25/23), Bitcoin’s latest 50MA >100MA crossover gained a decent +22.7%. While it’s clearly under the Average Trade worth for the complete historical past of those crossover alerts, Bitcoin could also be poised for probably larger costs if it’s 50MA can as soon as once more shut above its rising 100MA.
DB the Quant is the creator of the REKTelligence Report publication on Substack. Follow @REKTelligence on Twitter for evidence-based crypto market analysis and evaluation. Important Note: This content material is strictly academic in nature and shouldn’t be thought-about funding recommendation. Featured pictures created with Tableau. Charts from TradingView.com.